3 NFL Best Bets for Week 5: Analyzing the Bears, Giants and Chargers

Arian Modarres
October 04, 2019 - 10:06 am

Arian Modarres from RADIO.COM's "You Better You Bet" analyzes upcoming Week 5 games using his own model to rank and project each team.

Game: OAK vs. CHI (London)
The Bet: Take the Bears at -4.5
Date: SUN 10/6 1:00 p.m. ET
Home Team Spread: OAK + 4.5

The Chicago Bears seem to have awoken from their hibernation after their Week 2 comeback win against the Denver Broncos. Even with Mitch Trubisky out, the model finds the Bears at -4.5 to be the best play of the week. I’m not sure if the word is out yet that Trubisky isn’t exactly MVP caliber, but his loss might not even be palpable. Chicago's offense is ranked in the bottom third of the league in every category, from pass success to run success to YAC to red zone rate. There’s really not much room to go down. Its defense, on the flip side, is ranked fourth in the NFL, and has had great success getting after the quarterback. The Raiders' glaring weakness is on defense, where they are ranked in the bottom half of the league. Their offense is ranked 15th, and their O-line is also the middle of the pack.

Surprisingly, the Raiders' pass success rate is top-10 in the league, which kind of stands out for a team that has been very mediocre overall. The Bears should manage to put up points, and win by eight.

Game: NYG vs. MIN
The Bet: Take the Giants at +6
Date: SUN 10/6 1:00 p.m. ET
Home Team Spread: +6.0

The Minnesota Vikings have to be the most stubborn team on offense thus far this season. They run the ball more than any other team, even with two outstanding receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings' pass rank is 29th, but their defense has been extremely solid. The New York Giants have not been that bad on offense, either, ranking 16th in pass success rate. By no means are the Giants the better team here, but the Vikings are playing back-to-back games on the road, and the Giants are getting back-to-back home games, so it’s a nice situational spot for the Giants to make this a close game. Take the Giants to cover +6.

Game: LAC vs. DEN
The Bet: Take the Chargers at -6.5
Date: SUN 10/6 4:05 p.m. ET
Home Team Spread: -6.5

The Denver Broncos were projected to have the toughest strength of schedule this season, and so far it’s showed. They’ve lost multiple close games, but their numbers suggest that they have been lucky to even be in those games. Their offense and defense are both ranked 24th, and Joe Flacco’s inability to stretch the field has been a major problem. The Broncos are hoping to dink and dunk their way down the field, as they have been for the majority of the year. The Los Angeles Chargers are ranked 11th on offense, and 22nd on defense, good for a slightly above average team. However, they’ve been super successful at getting into the redzone, ranking fourth in that department, a sign of even more scoring to come. The Chargers should comfortably cover the spread.

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